What is already known:
What this study adds:
In this study, we compare public expectations of future climate with climate projections. Along with identifying general trends, we examine how one’s expectations may relate to demographic and ideological factors, as well as past weather experience. Through our analysis of a state-wide survey of Oklahomans in 2019, we find that Oklahomans, on average, expect a colder, wetter future than climate projections suggest. The consistency of one’s temperature change expectations with projections was significantly related to one’s gender, age, political affiliation, and perceptions about recent temperature anomalies. In particular, females, Democrats, millennials, and those who thought the past three years were hotter than average were more likely to expect a future consistent with or hotter than projections. Meanwhile, consistency between expectations of future changes in precipitation and projections were related to one’s recent drought experience, age, political affiliation, and temperature anomaly perceptions. However, these differences were only seen to be significant for two of the three model ensembles. Our results suggest that expectations of future temperatures are more likely to be influenced by ideological and demographic variables than expectations of future precipitation.