NWC REU 1999
May 24 - July 30



The Relationship Between Spread and Skill in an Ensemble Forecast

Barbara E. Tobey and David Stensrud



Past studies have shown that ensemble spread and forecast skill are correlated; however, more recent evidence indicates that this is not always true. This study investigates whether such a correlation exists in a simple model of convection. Results show that under certain conditions, it is inconclusive whether ensemble spread can be used to predict forecast skill.

Paper available upon request.