May 22 - July 30
Exploring Tornado Vulnerability in the Appalachian Region
Kelsey L. Grimme, Dr. Elizabeth H. Marold, and Harold Brooks
What is already known:
- In Appalachia, many socioeconomic factors, including income, education, and home internet access, perform below the national average.
- Tornado vulnerability has both meteorological and non-meteorological influences, including CWA performance and social vulnerability indices.
What this study adds:
- Both inside and outside of Appalachia, there was a general south-north increase in vulnerability from meteorological parameters and decrease in vulnerability from non-meteorological parameters.
- There was no statistically significant linear relationship between vulnerability and tornado death rates.
- The CWA level may be too coarse of a scale for vulnerability assessment, but sample size issues are already present, and would become even more prevalent at a finer scale.
Abstract:
The Appalachian region extends from northeastern Mississippi to southern New York, which is outside of the zone traditionally known as “tornado alley.” As seen by the EF4 tornado in London, KY on 16 May 2025, however, the region does still experience devastating tornadoes. With influences such as high rates of poverty and mobile/ manufactured home ownership, Appalachia bears an adverse socioeconomic state that has unknown impacts on large-scale tornado vulnerability. Leveraging data from the Center for Disease Control’s Social Vulnerability Index (CDC SVI), this study employed GIS software to explore the relationships between various social vulnerability indices and tornado death rates. A similar exploration was conducted for multiple forecast performance indices using data from a National Weather Service (NWS) Stats on Demand Interface. Ultimately, no significant linear correlations were found between tornado deaths and any of the indices examined at the County Warning Area (CWA) level. This information could hold implications for both disaster planning and Impact-Based Decision Support Services (IDSS).