Abstract:

National Parks have experienced extensive devastation from extreme weather events. This includes precipitation whiplash events which are defined by the rapid shift of opposing precipitation extremes and is a recent and growing topic in the field of meteorology. These events have been linked to increased risk of flash flooding, droughts, and wildfires which have devastating effects to National Parks. Previous studies have noted that whiplash events are projected to become more frequent and intense due to climate change. As such, it is necessary for park managers to create plans and adapt to these extreme weather events. However, the underlying knowledge on the conditions behind these events, needed to develop these plans, are under-researched in comparison to the individual dry and wet extremes that make up the event. The purpose of this study is to fill this gap by analyzing precipitation whiplash events at two specific National Parks–Alibates Flint Quarries National Monument, and Pecos National Historic Park– to better understand the historical frequency and conditions surrounding whiplash events. This study first identifies 16 historical triple whiplash events for each park using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index between 1981 and 2021, before examining their characteristics, evolution, and driving mechanisms. Both parks experienced similar whiplash characteristics of duration and increases in frequency within the historical period. A significant difference in the driving factors and patterns for the conditions of whiplash events was also experienced between the two parks. Evidence of the North American Oscillation (NAO) system was found at ALFL while PECO has evidence of being driven by less large-scale dynamics. These findings indicate a need for the National Parks to create park specific assessments and tools to better plan for whiplash events.

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