NWC REU 2003
May 26 - August 2



Reviewing the SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2003:An Evaluation of the Use of Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting Systems and New High Resolution Deterministic Models in the Prediction of Severe Thunderstorms

Marc Dahmer, Steven Weiss, and David Bright



The SPC/NSSL Spring Program is typically held during the heart of the severe convective weather season in Norman, Oklahoma. This is an opportunity for researchers and operational meteorologists to interact and collaborate on a variety of experimental forecast and other operationally relevant research programs. This year's program focus was two-fold. The primary objectives were to explore the use of Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting (SREF) systems to provide meaningful guidance in severe weather forecasting, and to examine the ability of new high-resolution deterministic models to predict convective initiation and evolution. These objectives were subjectively analyzed by participants and evaluated for its operational forecasting uses. The participants of the program were also surveyed to glean insight into the program's utility. Through the evaluation of the objectives, it was found that the SREF output does have positive use operationally. It was also found that just because a model's QPF is initially misplaced or missing, does not mean the model should be discounted as a tool in the prediction of severe weather as it pertains to watch lead time.

Full Paper [PDF]