Abstract:
To date, ensemble cloud modeling has mainly been used as a research tool. An ensemble cloud model that uses the Kessler precipitation parameterization has been used to generate forecasts of storm lifetimes. This project examines how an ice parameterization scheme changes the ensemble storm lifetimes. For each of the six cases, the storm lifetimes from the model without ice and model with ice are compared to the observed storm lifetimes to determine if adding ice statistically improves the forecast storm lifetimes. Quantitatively, only one case shows improvement when ice is added to the model. However, qualitatively, a majority of the cases improve when ice is included.
Paper available upon request.