NWC REU 2000
May 22 - July 28



Derecho Longevity: Predicting Storm Persistence or Decay Using Simulated Airflow Over a Cold Pool

Craig Lengyel and Dave Stensrud



A case list of 17 derechos and 26 proximity soundings are compiled and characteristics of the storm system are calculated and analyzed. Using a model to simulate airflow over a cold pool, further development or decay of the system is inferred. Additional soundings are added to the cases to further test model output. Results indicate that the simple cold pool model is able to correctly determine derecho persistence or decay for 31 of the 37 proximity soundings. Suggestions for further research and applications to operational forecasting are made.

Paper available upon request.