Reference List -- Ensemble Forecast
A
New Measure of Ensemble Performance: Perturbation versus Error Correlation
Analysis (PECA). Mozheng Wei and Zoltan Toth, MWR, 131 (2003), 1549每1565.
Spatial
and Interannual Variability of the Reliability of Ensemble-Based Probabilistic
Forecasts: Consequences for Calibration. Fr谷d谷ric Atger, MWR, 131 (2003),
1509每1523.
Short-Range
Ensemble Predictions of 2-m Temperature and Dewpoint Temperature over New
England. David J. Stensrud and Nusrat Yussouf, MWR, 131 (2003), 2510每2524.
Operational
Ensemble Cloud Model Forecasts: Some Preliminary Results. Kimberly L. Elmore,
Steven J. Weiss, and Peter C. Banacos, WF, 18 (2003), 953每964.
Ensemble
Experiments on Numerical Weather Prediction Error and Uncertainty for a North
Pacific Forecast Failure. Joshua P. Hacker, E. Scott Krayenhoff, and
Roland B. Stull, WF, 18 (2003), 12每31.
Short-Range
Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation during the Southwest Monsoon. David
R. Bright and Steven L. Mullen, WF, 17 (2002), 1080每1100.
Ensemble
Size, Balance, and Model-Error Representation in an Ensemble Kalman Filter*.
Herschel L. Mitchell, P. L. Houtekamer, and Gerard Pellerin, MWR, 130
(2002), 2791每2808.
Accounting
for Model Error in Ensemble-Based State Estimation and Forecasting. James
A. Hansen, MWR, 130 (2002), 2373每2391.
Cluster Analysis of Multimodel Ensemble Data from SAMEX. Ahmad Alhamed,
S. Lakshmivarahan, and David J. Stensrud, MWR, 130 (2002), 226-256.
The
Effect of Increased Horizontal Resolution on the NCEP Global Ensemble
Mean Forecasts. I. Szunyogh and Z. Toth, MWR, 130 (2002), 1125-1143.
(P)
Ensemble
Data Assimilation without Perturbed Observations. Jeffrey S. Whitaker
and Thomas M. Hamill, MWR, 130 (2002), 1913-1924. (P)
Ensemble
Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms. Kimberly L. Elmore,
David J. Stensrud, and Kenneth C. Crawford, JAM, 41 (2002), 363-383.
Ensemble
Simulations with Coupled Atmospheric Dynamic and Dispersion Models: Illustrating
Uncertainties in Dosage Simulations. Thomas T. Warner, Rong-Shyang Sheu,
James F. Bowers, R. Ian Sykes, Gregory C. Dodd, and Douglas S. Henn, JAM,
41 (2002), 488-504.
Explicit
Cloud-Scale Models for Operational Forecasts: A Note of Caution. Kimberly
L. Elmore, David J. Stensrud, and Kenneth C. Crawford, WF, 17 (2002),
873每884.
The
Impact of Horizontal Resolution and Ensemble Size on Probabilistic Forecasts
of Precipitation by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Steven L. Mullen
and Roberto Buizza, WF, 17 (2002), 173-191.
Initial
Results of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System over the
Pacific Northwest. Eric P. Grimit and Clifford F. Mass, WF, 17 (2002), 192-205.
Mesoscale
Model Ensemble Forecasts of the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak. David J.
Stensrud and Steven J. Weiss, WF, 17 (2002), 526-543.
Ensemble
Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event. Brian P. Mackey and T. N. Krishnamurti,
WF, 16 (2001), 399-415.
The
Use of Ensembles to Identify Forecasts with Small and Large Uncertainty.
Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu, and Timothy Marchok, WF, 16 (2001), 463-477.
Evaluation
of a Short-Range Multimodel Ensemble System. Matthew S. Wandishin, Steven
L. Mullen, David J. Stensrud, and Harold E. Brooks, MWR, 129 (2001), 729-747.
(P)
Objective
Verification of the SAMEX *98 Ensemble Forecasts. Dingchen Hou, Eugenia
Kalnay, and Kelvin K. Droegemeier, MWR, 129 (2001), 73-91. (P)
A
More Extensive Investigation of the Use of Ensemble Forecasts for Dispersion
Model Evaluation. Anne Grete Straume, JAM, 40 (2001), 425-445.
Using
Initial Condition and Model Physics Perturbations in Short-Range Ensemble
Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems. David J. Stensrud, Jian-Wen
Bao, and Thomas T. Warner, MWR, 128 (2000), 2077-2107. (P)
A
Comparison of Probabilistic Forecasts from Bred, Singular-Vector, and
Perturbed Observation Ensembles. Thomas M. Hamill, Chris Snyder, and Rebecca
E. Morss, MWR, 128 (2000), 1835-1851. (P)
Comments
on ※Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble
Prediction System§. Laurence J. Wilson, WF, 15 (2000), 361-364.
Comments
on ※Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble
Prediction System§. Josip Juras, WF, 15 (2000), 365-366.
Reply
to Comments by Wilson and by Juras. R. Buizza, A. Hollingsworth, F. Lalaurette,
and A. Ghelli, WF, 15 (2000), 367-369.
Decomposition
of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for Ensemble Prediction Systems.
Hans Hersbach, WF, 15 (2000), 559-570.
Model
Consensus. J. M. Fritsch, J. Hilliker, J. Ross, and R. L. Vislocky, WF,
15 (2000), 571-582.
Probabilistic
Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System.
R. Buizza, A. Hollingsworth, F. Lalaurette, and A. Ghelli, WF, 14 (1999),
168-189.
Tubing:
An Alternative to Clustering for the Classification of Ensemble Forecasts.
Frederic Atger, WF, 14 (1999), 741-757.
Extreme
Daily Rainfall Events and Their Impact on Ensemble Forecasts of the Indian
Monsoon. D. B. Stephenson, K. Rupa Kumar, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, J.-F. Royer,
F. Chauvin, and S. Pezzulli, MWR, 127 (1999), 1954-1966.
The
Skill of Ensemble Prediction Systems. Frederic Atger, MWR, 127 (1999),
1941-1953.
The
Dependence of Ensemble Dispersion on Analysis-Forecast Systems: Implications
to Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Precipitation. Steven L. Mullen,
Jun Du, and Frederick Sanders, MWR, 127 (1999), 1674-1686.
Numerical
Prediction of a Cold-Air Outbreak: A Case Study with Ensemble Forecasts.
Stephen J. Colucci, David P. Baumhefner, and Charles E. Konrad II, MWR,
127 (1999), 1538-1550.
A
Strategy for Verification of Weather Element Forecasts from an Ensemble
Prediction System. Laurence J. Wilson, William R. Burrows, and Andreas Lanzinger,
MWR, 127 (1999), 956-970.
Using
Ensembles for Short-Range Forecasting. David J. Stensrud, Harold E. Brooks,
Jun Du, M. Steven Tracton, and Eric Rogers, MWR, 127 (1999), 433-446.
(P)
Evaluation
of Eta-RSM Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts. Thomas M. Hamill
and Stephen J. Colucci, MWR, 126 (1998), 711-724.
Impact
of Ensemble Size on Ensemble Prediction. R. Buizza and T. N. Palmer, MWR,
126 (1998), 2503-2518. [increase size leads to better spread...]
Dispersion
Modeling Using Ensemble Forecasts Compared to ETEX Measurements. Anne
Grete Straume, Ernest N'Dri Koffi, and Katrin Nodop, JAM, 37 (1998), 1444-1456.
The
Relationship between Ensemble Spread and Ensemble Mean Skill. Jeffrey
S. Whitaker and Andrew F. Loughe, MWR, 126 (1998), 3292-3302.
The
Early History of Probability Forecasts: Some Extensions and Clarifications.
Allan H. Murphy, WF, 13 (1998), 5-15.
Short-Range
Ensemble Forecasting of Explosive Australian East Coast Cyclogenesis.
Lance M. Leslie and Milton S. Speer, WF, 13 (1998), 822-832.
Potential
Forecast Skill of Ensemble Prediction and Spread and Skill Distributions
of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Roberto Buizza, MWR, 125 (1997),
99-119.
A
Comparison Study of Convective Parameterization Schemes in a Mesoscale
Model. Wei Wang and Nelson L. Seaman, MWR, 125 (1997), 252-278.
Verification
of Eta-RSM Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts. Thomas M. Hamill and Stephen
J. Colucci, MWR, 125 (1997), 1312-1327. (P)
Using
Ensemble Forecasts for Model Validation. P. L. Houtekamer and Louis Lefaivre,
MWR, 125 (1997), 2416-2426.
Short-Range
Ensemble Forecasting of Quantitative Precipitation. Jun Du, Steven L.
Mullen, and Frederick Sanders, MWR, 125 (1997), 2427-2459. (P)
The
Impact of Dynamical Constraints on the Selection of Initial Conditions
for Ensemble Predictions: Low-Order Perfect Model Results. Jeffrey L. Anderson,
MWR, 125 (1997), 2969-2983.
Ensemble
Forecasting at NCEP and the Breeding Method. Zoltan Toth and Eugenia Kalnay,
MWR, 125 (1997), 3297-3319. (P)
A
Synoptic Evaluation of the NCEP Ensemble. Zoltan Toth, Eugenia Kalnay,
Steven M. Tracton, Richard Wobus, and Joseph Irwin, WF, 12 (1997), 140-153.
Physical
Initialization and Hurricane Ensemble Forecasts. T. N. Krishnamurti, Ricardo
Correa-Torres, Greg Rohaly, Darlene Oosterhof, and Naomi Surgi, WF, 12
(1997), 503-514.
The
Use of Bred Vectors in the NCEP Global 3D Variational Analysis System.
Zhao-Xia Pu, Eugenia Kalnay, David Parrish, Wanshu Wu, and Zoltan Toth,
WF, 12 (1997), 689-695.
An
Ensemble Forecasting Primer. Joel K. Sivillo, Jon E. Ahlquist, and Zoltan
Toth, WF, 12 (1997), 809-818.