Reference List -- Ensemble Forecast

A New Measure of Ensemble Performance: Perturbation versus Error Correlation Analysis (PECA). Mozheng Wei and Zoltan Toth, MWR, 131 (2003), 1549–1565.

Spatial and Interannual Variability of the Reliability of Ensemble-Based Probabilistic Forecasts: Consequences for Calibration. Frédéric Atger, MWR, 131 (2003), 1509–1523.

Short-Range Ensemble Predictions of 2-m Temperature and Dewpoint Temperature over New England. David J. Stensrud and Nusrat Yussouf, MWR, 131 (2003), 2510–2524.

Operational Ensemble Cloud Model Forecasts: Some Preliminary Results. Kimberly L. Elmore, Steven J. Weiss, and Peter C. Banacos, WF, 18 (2003), 953–964.

Ensemble Experiments on Numerical Weather Prediction Error and Uncertainty for a North Pacific Forecast Failure. Joshua P. Hacker, E. Scott Krayenhoff, and Roland B. Stull, WF, 18 (2003), 12–31.

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation during the Southwest Monsoon. David R. Bright and Steven L. Mullen, WF, 17 (2002), 1080–1100.

Ensemble Size, Balance, and Model-Error Representation in an Ensemble Kalman Filter*. Herschel L. Mitchell, P. L. Houtekamer, and Gerard Pellerin, MWR, 130 (2002), 2791–2808.

Accounting for Model Error in Ensemble-Based State Estimation and Forecasting. James A. Hansen, MWR, 130 (2002), 2373–2391.

Cluster Analysis of Multimodel Ensemble Data from SAMEX. Ahmad Alhamed, S. Lakshmivarahan, and David J. Stensrud, MWR, 130 (2002), 226-256.

The Effect of Increased Horizontal Resolution on the NCEP Global Ensemble Mean Forecasts. I. Szunyogh and Z. Toth, MWR, 130 (2002), 1125-1143. (P)

Ensemble Data Assimilation without Perturbed Observations. Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Thomas M. Hamill, MWR, 130 (2002), 1913-1924. (P)

Ensemble Cloud Model Applications to Forecasting Thunderstorms. Kimberly L. Elmore, David J. Stensrud, and Kenneth C. Crawford, JAM, 41 (2002), 363-383.

Ensemble Simulations with Coupled Atmospheric Dynamic and Dispersion Models: Illustrating Uncertainties in Dosage Simulations. Thomas T. Warner, Rong-Shyang Sheu, James F. Bowers, R. Ian Sykes, Gregory C. Dodd, and Douglas S. Henn, JAM, 41 (2002), 488-504.

Explicit Cloud-Scale Models for Operational Forecasts: A Note of Caution. Kimberly L. Elmore, David J. Stensrud, and Kenneth C. Crawford, WF, 17 (2002), 873–884.

The Impact of Horizontal Resolution and Ensemble Size on Probabilistic Forecasts of Precipitation by the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Steven L. Mullen and Roberto Buizza, WF, 17 (2002), 173-191.

Initial Results of a Mesoscale Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting System over the Pacific Northwest. Eric P. Grimit and Clifford F. Mass, WF, 17 (2002), 192-205.

Mesoscale Model Ensemble Forecasts of the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak. David J. Stensrud and Steven J. Weiss, WF, 17 (2002), 526-543.

Ensemble Forecast of a Typhoon Flood Event. Brian P. Mackey and T. N. Krishnamurti, WF, 16 (2001), 399-415.

The Use of Ensembles to Identify Forecasts with Small and Large Uncertainty. Zoltan Toth, Yuejian Zhu, and Timothy Marchok, WF, 16 (2001), 463-477.

Evaluation of a Short-Range Multimodel Ensemble System. Matthew S. Wandishin, Steven L. Mullen, David J. Stensrud, and Harold E. Brooks, MWR, 129 (2001), 729-747. (P)

Objective Verification of the SAMEX ’98 Ensemble Forecasts. Dingchen Hou, Eugenia Kalnay, and Kelvin K. Droegemeier, MWR, 129 (2001), 73-91. (P)

A More Extensive Investigation of the Use of Ensemble Forecasts for Dispersion Model Evaluation. Anne Grete Straume, JAM, 40 (2001), 425-445.

Using Initial Condition and Model Physics Perturbations in Short-Range Ensemble Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems. David J. Stensrud, Jian-Wen Bao, and Thomas T. Warner, MWR, 128 (2000), 2077-2107. (P)

A Comparison of Probabilistic Forecasts from Bred, Singular-Vector, and Perturbed Observation Ensembles. Thomas M. Hamill, Chris Snyder, and Rebecca E. Morss, MWR, 128 (2000), 1835-1851. (P)

Comments on “Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System”. Laurence J. Wilson, WF, 15 (2000), 361-364.

Comments on “Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System”. Josip Juras, WF, 15 (2000), 365-366.

Reply to Comments by Wilson and by Juras. R. Buizza, A. Hollingsworth, F. Lalaurette, and A. Ghelli, WF, 15 (2000), 367-369.

Decomposition of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score for Ensemble Prediction Systems. Hans Hersbach, WF, 15 (2000), 559-570.

Model Consensus. J. M. Fritsch, J. Hilliker, J. Ross, and R. L. Vislocky, WF, 15 (2000), 571-582.

Probabilistic Predictions of Precipitation Using the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. R. Buizza, A. Hollingsworth, F. Lalaurette, and A. Ghelli, WF, 14 (1999), 168-189.

Tubing: An Alternative to Clustering for the Classification of Ensemble Forecasts. Frederic Atger, WF, 14 (1999), 741-757.

Extreme Daily Rainfall Events and Their Impact on Ensemble Forecasts of the Indian Monsoon. D. B. Stephenson, K. Rupa Kumar, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, J.-F. Royer, F. Chauvin, and S. Pezzulli, MWR, 127 (1999), 1954-1966.

The Skill of Ensemble Prediction Systems. Frederic Atger, MWR, 127 (1999), 1941-1953.

The Dependence of Ensemble Dispersion on Analysis-Forecast Systems: Implications to Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Precipitation. Steven L. Mullen, Jun Du, and Frederick Sanders, MWR, 127 (1999), 1674-1686.

Numerical Prediction of a Cold-Air Outbreak: A Case Study with Ensemble Forecasts. Stephen J. Colucci, David P. Baumhefner, and Charles E. Konrad II, MWR, 127 (1999), 1538-1550.

A Strategy for Verification of Weather Element Forecasts from an Ensemble Prediction System. Laurence J. Wilson, William R. Burrows, and Andreas Lanzinger, MWR, 127 (1999), 956-970.

Using Ensembles for Short-Range Forecasting. David J. Stensrud, Harold E. Brooks, Jun Du, M. Steven Tracton, and Eric Rogers, MWR, 127 (1999), 433-446. (P)

Evaluation of Eta-RSM Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts. Thomas M. Hamill and Stephen J. Colucci, MWR, 126 (1998), 711-724.

Impact of Ensemble Size on Ensemble Prediction. R. Buizza and T. N. Palmer, MWR, 126 (1998), 2503-2518. [increase size leads to better spread...]

Dispersion Modeling Using Ensemble Forecasts Compared to ETEX Measurements. Anne Grete Straume, Ernest N'Dri Koffi, and Katrin Nodop, JAM, 37 (1998), 1444-1456.

The Relationship between Ensemble Spread and Ensemble Mean Skill. Jeffrey S. Whitaker and Andrew F. Loughe, MWR, 126 (1998), 3292-3302.

The Early History of Probability Forecasts: Some Extensions and Clarifications. Allan H. Murphy, WF, 13 (1998), 5-15.

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Explosive Australian East Coast Cyclogenesis. Lance M. Leslie and Milton S. Speer, WF, 13 (1998), 822-832.

Potential Forecast Skill of Ensemble Prediction and Spread and Skill Distributions of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. Roberto Buizza, MWR, 125 (1997), 99-119.

A Comparison Study of Convective Parameterization Schemes in a Mesoscale Model. Wei Wang and Nelson L. Seaman, MWR, 125 (1997), 252-278.

Verification of Eta-RSM Short-Range Ensemble Forecasts. Thomas M. Hamill and Stephen J. Colucci, MWR, 125 (1997), 1312-1327. (P)

Using Ensemble Forecasts for Model Validation. P. L. Houtekamer and Louis Lefaivre, MWR, 125 (1997), 2416-2426.

Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Quantitative Precipitation. Jun Du, Steven L. Mullen, and Frederick Sanders, MWR, 125 (1997), 2427-2459. (P)

The Impact of Dynamical Constraints on the Selection of Initial Conditions for Ensemble Predictions: Low-Order Perfect Model Results. Jeffrey L. Anderson, MWR, 125 (1997), 2969-2983.

Ensemble Forecasting at NCEP and the Breeding Method. Zoltan Toth and Eugenia Kalnay, MWR, 125 (1997), 3297-3319. (P)

A Synoptic Evaluation of the NCEP Ensemble. Zoltan Toth, Eugenia Kalnay, Steven M. Tracton, Richard Wobus, and Joseph Irwin, WF, 12 (1997), 140-153.

Physical Initialization and Hurricane Ensemble Forecasts. T. N. Krishnamurti, Ricardo Correa-Torres, Greg Rohaly, Darlene Oosterhof, and Naomi Surgi, WF, 12 (1997), 503-514.

The Use of Bred Vectors in the NCEP Global 3D Variational Analysis System. Zhao-Xia Pu, Eugenia Kalnay, David Parrish, Wanshu Wu, and Zoltan Toth, WF, 12 (1997), 689-695.

An Ensemble Forecasting Primer. Joel K. Sivillo, Jon E. Ahlquist, and Zoltan Toth, WF, 12 (1997), 809-818.