CAPS 2011 HWT Spring Experiment Ensemble Forecast Product


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This webpage shows post-processed ensemble products, including postage-stamp and spaghetti plots,
ensemble mean in the form of Probability Matching (PM), ensemble maximum, ensemble probability,
and neighborhood probability maps, of selected fields. This webpage is for demonstration purpose. It
doesn't include all available ensemble products generated from the experiment.

Multi-model ensemble system: 48 ensemble members - 41 WRF-ARW, 5 WRF-NMM, and 2 ARPS
(hybrid: initial perturbation + physics perturbation); 4 km horizontal grid spacing; 51 vertical levels; 36 h
forecast initiated at 0000 UTC

Post-processed ensemble products are based on a 24-member sub-ensemble. The neighborhood
probabilities are calculated using a 40 km Radius of Impact (ROI) and a 2D Gaussian smoother with
a sigma value of 10, except for the QPF variables which use a 0 km ROI and a sigma value of 30.
New in 2011: Several experimental CI parameters and lightning threat parameters, aka LFA - Lightning
Forecast Algorithm (McCaul et al. 2009) are computed. The neighborhood probabilities of Lightning
Threat 3 (LTG-3) are shown in this demonstration page

The CAPS 2011 Spring Experiment Plan document details the ensemble system configuration.

Last updated by Fanyou Kong (fkong@ou.edu)