CAPS 2016 HWT Spring Experiment Ensemble Forecast Product


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This webpage shows post-processed ensemble products, including postage-stamp and spaghetti plots,
ensemble mean in the form of Probability Matching (PM), ensemble maximum, ensemble probability, and
neighborhood probability maps, of selected fields. This webpage is for demonstration purpose. It doesn't
include all available ensemble products generated from the experiment.

Highlight in 2016: 24 ensemble members -- 19 WRF-ARW and 6 NMMB members (hybrid: initial
perturbation + physics perturbation), with 3 km horizontal grid spacing and 51 vertical levels; 36-60h
forecast initiated at 0000 UTC.

Post-processed ensemble products are based on a 15-member sub-ensemble. Neighborhood probabilities
are calculated using a 40 km Radius of Impact (ROI) and a 2D Gaussian smoother with a sigma value of 10.

An experimental  GSI+EnKF data assimilation based ensemble forecast is produced over the same CONUS
domain; Two simulated  IR channels (6.48, 10.7µm) Brightness Temperature (BT) are produced using CRTM.

The CAPS 2016 Spring Experiment Plan document details the ensemble system configuration.

Previous years' SSEF ensemble product pages: 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010,
                                                                                            2009, 2008, 2007

Last updated by Fanyou Kong (fkong@ou.edu)