CAPS 2015 HWT Spring Experiment Ensemble Forecast Product


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This webpage shows post-processed ensemble products, including postage-stamp and spaghetti plots,
ensemble mean in the form of Probability Matching (PM), ensemble maximum, ensemble probability, and
neighborhood probability maps, of selected fields. This webpage is for demonstration purpose. It doesn't
include all available ensemble products generated from the experiment.

Highlight in 2015: 20 ensemble members -- all WRF-ARW members (hybrid: initial perturbation + physics
perturbation); Model grid has been changed from 4-km to 3-km horizontal grid spacing (3 km horizontal
grid spacing; 51 vertical levels); 60h forecast initiated at 0000 UTC.

Post-processed ensemble products are based on a 12-member sub-ensemble. Neighborhood probabilities
are calculated using a 40 km Radius of Impact (ROI) and a 2D Gaussian smoother with a sigma value of 10.

An experimental  EnKF radar assimilation forecast over the same US domain; Two simulated  IR channels
(6.48, 10.7µm) Brightness Temperature (BT) are produced using CRTM; Polarmetric radar simulator product
(ZDR, KDP) are demonstrated (Jung et al. 2010).

The CAPS 2015 Spring Experiment Plan document details the ensemble system configuration.

Previous years' SSEF ensemble product pages: 2014, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007

Last updated by Fanyou Kong (fkong@ou.edu)