CAPS 2014 HWT Spring Experiment Ensemble Forecast Product


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This webpage shows post-processed ensemble products, including postage-stamp and spaghetti plots,
ensemble mean in the form of Probability Matching (PM), ensemble maximum, ensemble probability, and
neighborhood probability maps, of selected fields. This webpage is for demonstration purpose. It doesn't
include all available ensemble products generated from the experiment.

Multi-model ensemble system: 24 ensemble members -- 20 WRF-ARW and 4 COAMPS
(hybrid: initial perturbation + physics perturbation); 4 km horizontal grid spacing; 51 vertical levels;
60h forecast initiated at 0000 UTC.

Post-processed ensemble products are based on a 12-member sub-ensemble. Neighborhood probabilities
are calculated using a 40 km Radius of Impact (ROI) and a 2D Gaussian smoother with a sigma value of 10.
New in 2014: A daily 24-hour-long 8-member ensemble is initialized at 12 UTC, running at OSCER; An
experimental  EnKF radar assimilation forecast over the US domain; Two simulated  IR channels (6.48,
10.7µm) Brightness Temperature (BT) are produced using CRTM; Polarmetric radar simulator product (ZDR,
KDP) are demonstrated (Jung et al. 2010).

The CAPS 2014 Spring Experiment Plan document details the ensemble system configuration.

Previous years' SSEF ensemble product pages: 2013, 2012, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007

Last updated by Fanyou Kong (fkong@ou.edu)