CAPS 2012 HWT Spring Experiment Ensemble Forecast Product


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This webpage shows post-processed ensemble products, including postage-stamp and spaghetti plots,
ensemble mean in the form of Probability Matching (PM), ensemble maximum, ensemble probability, and
neighborhood probability maps, of selected fields. This webpage is for demonstration purpose. It doesn't
include all available ensemble products generated from the experiment.

Multi-model ensemble system: 28 ensemble members -- 23 WRF-ARW, 1 WRF-NMM, 1 ARPS, and 3
COAMPS (hybrid: initial perturbation + physics perturbation); 4 km horizontal grid spacing; 51 vertical levels;
36 h forecast initiated at 0000 UTC.

Post-processed ensemble products are based on a 12-member sub-ensemble. Neighborhood probabilities
are calculated using a 40 km Radius of Impact (ROI) and a 2D Gaussian smoother with a sigma value of 10,
except for the QPF variables which use a 0 km ROI and a sigma value of 30.
New in 2012: The computation of CI and Lightning Threat (LFA - McCaul et al. 2009) parameters has been
upgraded; The simulated synthetic GOES-13 IR brightness temperatures (BT) are generated using several
RTMs (including CRTM, CIRA RTM, and CIMSS RTM). BT products at 10.7 micron are shown in this
demonstration page; Stochastic Kinetic Energy Backscatter (SKEB) is applied to several ARW members.

The CAPS 2012 Spring Experiment Plan document details the ensemble system configuration.

Previous years' SSEF ensemble product pages: 2011, 2010, 2009, 2008, 2007

Last updated by Fanyou Kong (fkong@ou.edu)