CAPS 2009 Spring Experiment Ensemble Forecast Product
This demonstration webpage
shows hourly ensemble products, including postage-stamp
chart, spaghetti plots
, ensemble mean (in the form of Probability Matching - PM) and spread
, and probability maps,
of the forecast composite reflectivity and 1-h accumulated accumulated
precipitation
fields, along with the available observations
(composite reflectivity mosaic
and NSSL/NMQ 1-h precipitation)
valid at the same times.
Multi-model ensemble system: 20 ensemble
members - 10 WRF-ARW, 8 WRF-NMM, and 2 ARPS
(hybrid: initial perturbation + physics perturbation); 4 km horizontal grid
spacing; 51 vertical levels for WRF and 43 for ARPS; 30 h forecast initiated at 0000 UTC
NEW in 2009: a) Add 8 members using
WRF NMM dynamical core; b) Add 2 members using ARPS modeling system
The CAPS 2009 Spring Experiment Plan document
details the ensemble system configuration.